Wellington Chamber Business Confidence Survey shows improving sentiment, but challenges remain

Business confidence in Wellington lifted noticeably in the last quarter of last year, with many firms entering 2026 feeling more optimistic about their prospects, Wellington Chamber CEO Hayley Horan says.

“What we’re hearing from Wellington businesses is realistic optimism. While the broader economic backdrop remains challenging, firms have built resilience and are beginning to see more possibility on the horizon.”

The most striking change is in how businesses view their own performance. Half of respondents expect their financial position to improve over the next 12 months, while just over six percent anticipate a decline. This shift lifted the Chamber’s business confidence score from 15 percent in the previous quarter to 43.9 percent in the last quarter of 2025.

Expectations for the local economy have also strengthened. Around a third of business leaders believe the Wellington economy will improve over the coming year, compared with fewer than one in five who expect it to decline.

Horan says Wellington’s underlying strengths are helping drive this shift. “We have a highly skilled workforce and a strong private sector. Our Green Light Economy report last year highlighted the opportunity to better capitalise on this talent. Technology and creative industries, for example, continue to lead growth and innovation.”

Despite the lift in confidence, significant pressures remain. Rising costs are still the dominant concern, with more than three quarters of businesses expecting further increases. Weak consumer confidence, productivity challenges, and labour constraints were also identified as key issues heading into 2026.

“There’s no glossing over the challenges of the past few years,” Horan says. “But we are seeing a steady and genuine lift in confidence. Many organisations are investing and hiring again, even if with a little more caution.”

With an election year ahead, continuity is also on firms’ minds. “Businesses want strong bipartisanship on key issues like infrastructure, so momentum isn’t lost,” Horan says.

The results highlight growing belief in individual business performance, but more cautious sentiment around the city’s wider direction.

“The opportunity now is to turn this early recovery in sentiment into genuine momentum,” Horan says. “That means pro-growth policy, fiscal discipline, and visible progress on the things that matter to Wellingtonians.”